Add in Keenan Allen and a good WR corps and this is a well-rounded, talented unit. The big 49ers question is how long Jimmy Garoppolo holds off rookie Trey Lance. The Vikings are the totem of this next tier of offenses that are good but not great. Minnesota certainly has plenty of weapons. Kirk Cousins is right in this same range as a quarterback — good, but not great.
Daboll is more aggressive than any play caller, especially on early downs, and the formula certainly worked last year with Allen dialing up big plays to Stefon Diggs. Add in a suspect run game and this offense could fall back to the pack. We can only imagine what the Cardinals attack might look like with a real play caller. The Titans have all the weapons with Jones, A.
Brown and Derrick Henry, but the line is suspect and Ryan Tannehill has never been great without Smith. In the end, both units may wind up somewhere around the middle. What version of Carson Wentz will the Colts get?
The Colts have a deep mix of mostly average weapons, with Jonathan Taylor the best among them. The standout unit on the offense is the line, but they need to get Quenton Nelson and Eric Fisher healthy so it could be a slow start. The Saints are forced to go the other direction with the retirement of Drew Brees. It looks like Jameis Winston may start over Taysom Hill, but either one will be a steep dropoff from Brees from a decision-making and care standpoint.
The high floor part of the Broncos equation looks much better now that Teddy Bridgewater is the Week 1 starter, not Drew Lock. Bridgewater may at least offer some stability, while Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams are a nice punch at RB. Denver has a Super Bowl roster with a lottery team QB. The Raiders unexpectedly blew up their offensive line and might have the biggest downgrade in the league there this season. That could spell trouble for a team with below average skill on offense.
Darren Waller is a real weapon, but this is mostly reliant on Jon Gruden to keep the offense afloat, a job he still does surprisingly well even two decades after winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots are among the worst teams in the league in talent at the skill positions. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are the big new additions at tight end, and those two combined with an always great offensive line mean Bill Belichick will try to win this game up front in the trenches. It remains to be seen whether that will be with Cam Newton running behind them or with rookie Mac Jones getting time in the pocket to pick the D apart.
The Patriots had ranked top-eight in rushing DVOA four straight years, but the passing attack cratered last season. The Bengals should be on the way up. The problem is the hidden parts: the line and the scheme. The big Panthers question comes at quarterback. Moore and Robby Anderson, an old target with the Jets. If Darnold is good, the Panthers could really rise up the ranks. Like the others in this tier, the Lions offense may be more bad than terrible.
The Eagles could end up surprising if new coach Nick Sirianni gets the most out of Jalen Hurts, especially if the talented O-line stays healthy. Still, unless Hurts is better than expected, the rest may not matter. The Steelers look like a team whose bottom could really fall out. The offensive line looks just awful after losing several longtime starters, and it sure feels like the Grim Reaper has already come for Ben Roethlisberger. The Giants are in a similar spot to Pittsburgh.
As mentioned above, offenses are run in different ways. The same can be said for rushing numbers as well. There are factors like offensive style, and also the situations they find themselves in each game. Offenses that are built to score in big chunks like the Kansas City Chiefs may not see a ton of red zone attempts, and that is okay because they are built to score from outside of the 20 yard-line.
One area linked to offensive success is the number of first downs as well as third and fourth down conversions. This does align with how successful an offense is. The amount of plays is also not indicative of how good an offense is either. Teams that are efficient or run a slower pace can rank lower in the number of plays they run, to where their production is solid, but the number of plays and attempts they carry are going to be average to even below average.
If you are looking for fantasy points, you can see how successful an offense is in generating fantasy points. If you are looking at interceptions and sacks. The higher the ranking, the better the team performed. If they rank first, it means that they allowed the fewest sacks or threw the fewest touchdowns.
If they are in the red and towards the bottom, they allowed the most or threw the most. Teams that turn the ball over can correlate with volume, but teams that take care of the ball have better offensive numbers.
Protecting your quarterback is also important, and the base of an offense starts with the offensive line.
Part of the reason why some teams will rank higher or lower than average is because of the offensive scheme they run. Of course, teams that are successful at throwing the ball will want to throw more, and the same goes for running the ball. However, some teams will stick to their offensive scheme regardless of success.
Run heavy offenses will take away pass attempts, but the stronger offenses will still make up in touchdowns and overall points. San Francisco was a great example of this, alongside Baltimore this past season. They dominated so much on the ground, and in games overall, there was no need for them to throw heavy. Teams that throw the ball more can be because of their offensive build, coaching style, or because of their defense.
The defensive aspect we will get to in a minute, but pass-heavy offenses can still generate a lot of rushing attempts as well. They tend to go hand in hand with teams on a heavier pace as well. Teams that rank high in overall plays run, they also rank very high in pass attempts. There might be a few outliers, but for the most part, they are going to correlate. No-huddle has been a popular way to go for teams, and it can be mix and match throughout the season.
Teams that play at a faster pace can translate in the points department. They will still need to be efficient, but it is less reliant because they will have more opportunities.
All these offensive styles also factor into how we want to view them for fantasy. That is why studying how offenses are run can be a big help for your fantasy teams. Looking back throughout the last few seasons, teams with more pass attempts also tie into fantasy points.
Even some of the poorer teams in the league were fantasy viable because they were able to throw the ball a lot. If you are using this page for fantasy, it will be updating each week, and it is hard to view on a week-to-week basis. If a team for the first five weeks was playing from behind, they might have more passing attempts in comparison to the next five weeks if they become neutral game scripts where they want to be more run-heavy. There is a lot of data out there about wanting teams to be more aggressive, but only some of the NFL teams have gotten the note.
When looking at fourth-down attempts and conversion rates, there is no surprise to see them also linked to higher points as well. More conservative teams would finish league average or below league average. It is all about putting multiple pieces of the puzzle together. Teams that ranked high in pass attempts might also have poorer defenses. The NFC South has been a shootout division over recent times, mainly because of how the offenses are run. However, the style of defense heavily factors into the game flow.
Teams that struggle with their secondary are going to be in shootouts, especially if their offense can keep up. A lot of teams that finish at the bottom of the league will have higher pass attempts in the rankings. Teams that play in closer games with a heavy run scheme or are leading, their second-half offenses will look a little bit different.
They may see more even rankings in pass attempts and then lean more on the run. It will be about milking the clock or taking long possessions, which are tied to rushing attempts. You might hear a lot about negative and positive regression, especially in the scoring department.
A team that ranks in the top five in pass attempts but has average to below-average passing touchdown numbers, in a normal season, they might see some positive regression where that balances out the next season.
It can also work the other way where teams are historically efficient, and that balances out the next season where things come back down to earth a little bit.
For example, if a team rushes the second highest in the league, but is 18th in rushing touchdowns, we might see some positive regression. On the flip side, if a team ranks 20th in attempts and finishes 2nd in touchdowns, they might be due some negative regression. Both are important, as generally volume will be linked with more touchdowns and yards. Efficiency can make up for volume, and vice versa.
Some teams are just going to be outliers in the system as well. As mentioned above, Red Zone numbers are where we can see this happen a lot. It also ties into how teams are built. In nine games last season, he threw for 2, yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Washington also upgraded its receiving corps, signing Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries and drafting wideout Dyami Brown in the third round. With a versatile backfield that features Antonio Gibson, J. With a dominant unit on the other side of the ball, average might be enough to put Washington back into the postseason.
The Carolina Panthers are betting big on quarterback Sam Darnold after acquiring him from the Jets earlier this offseason. Darnold, who has a career passer rating of Secondly, the Panthers have an offensive coordinator in Joe Brady who has shown he can elevate a quarterback's play.
In , Burrow passed for 2, yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. In , he passed for 5, yards, 60 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also won the Heisman Trophy and became the No. Darnold is still very much an unknown, but Carolina should be no worse than it was offensively in , and it has the potential to improve substantially.
Which version of Carson Wentz will the Indianapolis Colts get in ? That's the biggest unknown for this team and why Indianapolis gets knocked down the rankings after fielding a top offense in If the Colts get the pre-injury, Pro Bowl version of Wentz, they'll quickly rise through the rankings. If they get the disaster of a quarterback that was Wentz in , though, they could struggle. However, Indianapolis lacks proven options at tight end and is in the process of replacing starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo, who retired in the offseason.
Still, the biggest question mark is Wentz. Based on how he performed in —he had a passer rating of To be fair, the upside of the Cincinnati Bengals offense is tremendous, and this ranking may seem a little silly midseason.
Joe Burrow was on pace for a 4,yard season before he was lost for the year with torn knee ligaments. The issue here is that Burrow is coming back from a devastating knee injury, and there's no telling how he'll respond. The offensive line was suspect in , surrendering 48 sacks, and saw minimal upgrades in the additions of Riley Reiff and rookie second-round pick Jackson Carman.
The Bengals had the league's fourth-worst offensive SRS last season. While missing Burrow for six games played a role in that, his recovery and the offensive line are still legitimate concerns.
Cincinnati is probably still a year away from unlocking Burrow's full potential and fielding an elite offense. After drafting Florida tight end Kyle Pitts fourth overall, the Atlanta Falcons have the potential to feature the league's most potent passing attack. Pitts is considered a generational pass-catcher, and the Falcons still have a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback in Matt Ryan , a future Hall of Famer in Julio Jones and other weapons in Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst—though Jones could be traded for cap relief.
That's where we are with the salary cap, so we have to make some difficult decisions," general manager Terry Fontenot said, per ESPN's Michael Rothstein. The big issue for the Falcons is a lackluster rushing attack and an imbalanced offense. Atlanta ranked 31st in yards per carry last year and is counting on year-old free-agent addition Mike Davis to revitalize the ground game.
This lack of balance could be a significant issue and is the one reason why Atlanta may be an average team offensively in How big of an impact will quarterback Matthew Stafford have on the Los Angeles Rams offense this season? That remains to be seen, and it's an uncertainty that has L. With Jared Goff under center, the Rams regularly racked up the yardage without cashing in on points in There is potential for significant improvement if Stafford proves to be a major upgrade, though.
Sean McVay is an accomplished play-caller who knows how to scheme big plays on offense. It'll be interesting to see what he can cook up with the cannon-armed Stafford under center. Still, this is an offense that didn't always put points on the board—it scored 20 or fewer eight times in the regular season—and there's no guarantee that Stafford will provide an immediate solution. The New Orleans Saints boasted a potent offense in It ranked fifth in points scored and fourth in offensive SRS.
Following the retirement of Drew Brees , however, it's hard to view the Saints as anything more than average offensively heading into training camp. New Orleans will now hold a quarterback competition between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston to determine Brees' replacement.
While an above-average starter may emerge, there will be no replacing the experience, football IQ and leadership that left with Brees. The Saints also parted with No. While elite weapons in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara remain, the offense isn't as deep as it is top-heavy—and Thomas is coming off a disappointing injury-hampered season. It's impossible to knock New Orleans down too far, though, as it still has a tremendous offensive line—one that allowed just 29 sacks in —and one of the game's best offensive coaches in Sean Payton.
Quarterback Justin Herbert was fantastic as a rookie last season, passing for 4, yards with 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He could be even better in with the additions of All-Pro center Corey Linsley and rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater. Yet, Herbert is still developing as an NFL signal-caller. This is an offense that didn't always turn big yardage into big points and also produced a negative offensive SRS last season.
It lost tight end Hunter Henry in free agency, and Herbert and Co. There's plenty of potential here, to be sure—weapons like Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams remain—but until we see things come together on the field, it's impossible to view the Chargers offense as significantly better than it was a year ago.
The Las Vegas Raiders fielded a top offense in both yards and points produced last season. However, retooling along the offensive line could cause some early struggles this season.
This should still be an above-average unit in , though. Las Vegas also drafted offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood, brought in running back Kenyan Drake to spell Jacobs and could have a tremendous rushing attack.
A lot will hinge on how quickly the new-look offensive line comes together and if new receivers like Willie Snead IV and John Brown can adequately replace Williams and Agholor. However, this should be a playoff-caliber unit. While the Pittsburgh Steelers packed some punch in the passing game last season, they were wildly imbalanced. The Steelers ranked 15th in passing yards and dead last in rushing.
The addition of first-round running back Najee Harris should address the issue but perhaps not enough to make this an elite unit. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger , 39, started to show his age near the end of last season, while dropped passes hurt an impressive receiver group of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington and Chase Claypool. These late-season woes could return in , and the losses of starting center Maurkice Pouncey and starting left tackle Alejandro Villanueva aren't going to help matters.
Still, the additions of Harris, second-round tight end Pat Freiermuth and third-round center Kendrick Green will provide a boost. Pittsburgh should have a better all-around offense than it had last year, though Roethlisberger's decline could become a fatal flaw. The San Francisco 49ers used the third overall pick on quarterback Trey Lance, but his time as the team's starter may have to wait.
The success of San Francisco's offense will likely depend on the health of Garoppolo—who missed 23 games over the past three years—and other players who missed time last season, like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
San Francisco was average at best in after ranking fourth in total offense in For now, it's fair to rank the 49ers somewhere between where they were in and where they finished last year. While the ceiling should be extremely high for the 49ers offense, the floor is merely above average.
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